Although the Dominican real estate market usually looks at building permits, sales, prices, interest rates, or available inventory to try to anticipate where housing demand will move, there is one variable that changes more slowly and, precisely for that reason, can be more decisive: the structure of the population
SANTO DOMINGO. – The new National Population Estimates and Projections 1950-2100 from the National Statistics Office (ONE) show that the Dominican Republic will not only continue to increase its population during the next decades, but also that the country will experience a profound transformation in its age composition, fertility and life expectancy.
For the real estate sector, the conclusion is not simply that there will be "more people" who will need housing; the most relevant fact is that the housing needs of the Dominican population are also changing.
According to the new projections of the ONE, the Dominican Republic has an estimated population of 11,087,418 inhabitants in 2026 and will continue to grow during the next decades, although increasingly slowly, until reaching its projected maximum of 13,476,248 inhabitants on January 1, 2073.
From then on, a gradual reduction in population would begin.
The ONE projects that at the beginning of 2074 the country will have 13,474,575 inhabitants. By 2080 the population would be around 13.42 million; by 2090, 13.18 million, and by 2100 it would be around 12.77 million.
The data has a direct interpretation for the sector: demographic expansion does not disappear, but it ceases to be a story of indefinite growth, which forces us to think about real estate development with longer horizons.
A project designed today may remain on the market for decades, while the population that will occupy it in 2040, 2050 or 2060 will have a different structure than the current one.
The most significant transformation: the age of the population
According to the ONE, the average age of Dominicans went from 21.6 years in 1950 to approximately 32.65 years in 2026, and will continue to increase over the next few decades.
The institution projects that in 2044, for the first time, there will be more people aged 60 and over than children under 15. By 2050, the ratio will reach approximately 123 older adults for every 100 children under 15 and will continue to increase during the second half of the century.
This transformation matters for housing because an aging population does not demand exactly the same real estate product as a predominantly young population.
Accessibility, proximity to health services, mobility, safety, building maintenance, and the possibility of living with less dependence on cars become more important.
This doesn't mean that housing for young families will disappear. It means that the market will have to simultaneously cater to generations with different needs.
Another change identified by the ONE is in fertility. The global fertility rate fell from 7.57 children per woman in 1950 to 1.97 in 2026, below the replacement level, and projections place this indicator at around 1.70 children per woman in 2050.
This trend has a potentially important consequence for the housing market: future demand growth cannot be analyzed solely by multiplying population by housing; it also matters how many people will make up each household.
Data from the 2022 National Population and Housing Census already show a reduction in the average size of Dominican households. The National Statistics Office (ONE) counted 3,726,936 households and estimated a reduction in the average size from 3.8 people in 2005 to 2.9 in 2022.
This presents an interesting paradox for the real estate sector: a population that grows more slowly can still generate considerable demand for housing if the number of people living in each household continues to decrease.
In other words, it's not enough to ask how many Dominicans there will be. We also need to ask how many households those Dominicans will form.
The difference between city and countryside
The current snapshot of the housing stock also helps to understand where the market may evolve.
According to Booklet I on the structural characteristics of housing from the X Census 2022, there are 3,694,060 occupied private dwellings in the country, while independent houses represent 66.1% of the total, and apartments reach 18.4%, with 681,247 units.
But the territorial difference is significant: in urban areas apartments represent 23.2% of occupied private dwellings, while in rural areas their share is only 5.9%.
The combination of urbanization, smaller households, and changes in the age structure can favor, in certain markets, a greater diversity of products: apartments, smaller homes, accessible units for older adults, mixed-use projects, and developments close to services.
Geography will be the next piece of the puzzle, and here is one of the points worth following closely.
The projections presented by the ONE are national and allow us to identify the direction of demographic change, but they do not yet answer on their own where future pressure on housing will be concentrated territorially.
The ONE itself indicates that during 2026 and 2027 it plans to make progress in estimates and projections of subnational population, economically active population, and households. These exercises will allow for refinement of territorial and sectoral planning.
And for the real estate market, this upcoming data will be especially relevant. Because it's one thing for the Dominican Republic to grow from approximately 11.1 million inhabitants in 2026 to a maximum of around 13.5 million in 2073; it's quite another to know in which provinces, municipalities, and urban areas that growth will be concentrated.
There you will find some of the answers the sector needs to anticipate land, infrastructure, housing and services.
The home of the future
The ONE figures suggest that the Dominican real estate debate will have to evolve, since from the 20th to the 21st century, the discussion on housing has been very focused on the housing deficit and the need to build new units, a challenge that is still present.
But new demographic projections add another dimension: the need to adapt the supply to a population that will have fewer children, more elderly adults, potentially smaller households, and a considerably longer life expectancy.
Life expectancy at birth, which the ONE estimates at 75.76 years for 2026, would rise to 81.63 years in 2050 and continue to increase thereafter, which raises questions that the real estate market will have to start analyzing and that cannot be answered solely by prices per square meter:
- Are homes being built with an aging population in mind?
- Do the new projects incorporate sufficient accessibility?
- Where will the housing be located in relation to hospitals, health centers, transportation, commerce and services?
- Will the supply continue to focus on relatively large family units as small households grow?
- Will there be enough affordable housing for the new generations entering the labor market?
New opportunities
Demographic change can also represent an opportunity for developers who are able to read it before it becomes an obvious pressure on the market.
A still-growing population, but with lower fertility and greater longevity, presents a scenario in which the quality of housing, its location and its adaptation to different stages of life may acquire increasing importance.
ONE itself highlights that these projections constitute a tool to anticipate future demands, allocate resources and design differentiated policies according to the demographic stage of each territory.
The future pressure on housing will not be determined solely by the country's population, but by who those people will be, how they will be forming their households, and where they will be living. This is the information that will allow us to move from a national snapshot to a territorial map of future demand.
Sources: National Statistics Office (ONE), National Population Estimates and Projections 1950-2100; ONE, X National Population and Housing Census 2022, Booklet I. Structural characteristics of housing in the Dominican Republic; ONE, A look at households in the Dominican Republic 2005-2022; ONE, dissemination calendar 2026.
Recommended reading:
