The Dominican Republic is entering a new stage of its demographic transition, marked by lower fertility, higher life expectancy, and a progressive aging of the population, according to the new National Population Estimates and Projections 1950-2100 of the National Statistics Office (ONE)
SANTO DOMINGO. – The results show that the country will continue to increase its population over the next few decades, but at a decreasing rate: the population, which exceeds 10.8 million inhabitants in 2026, would reach about 12.3 million in 2050 and would continue to grow until approaching its maximum during the decade of 2070.
After that, a gradual decline would begin. The transformation, however, is not only in the number of inhabitants, but the most profound change is occurring in the composition of the Dominican population: fewer children and a greater life expectancy
According to the ONE, in 1950 each woman had an average of 7.57 children during her reproductive life, and by 2026, the global fertility rate is set at 1.97 children per woman, below the replacement level.
Projections indicate that this indicator will remain around 1.70 children per woman towards 2050 and 2100.
At the same time, life expectancy at birth has experienced a considerable increase, going from 44 years in 1950 to 75.7 years in 2026, and the ONE projects that it will reach approximately 91.5 years in 2100.
In 2026, life expectancy is 79.1 years for women and 72.4 years for men. The combination of lower fertility and longer lifespans is changing the country's age structure.
An aging society
The average age of the Dominican population increased from 21.6 years in 1950 to 32.9 years in 2026, and the National Statistics Office (ONE) projects that it will reach 40.3 years in 2050 and 51.6 years in 2100. This means that the Dominican Republic will progressively have an aging population.
One of the indicators that best reflects this process is the aging index, which relates the population aged 60 and over to the population under 15. According to projections from the National Statistics Office (ONE), this indicator will exceed the 60 threshold in 2031, marking the country's entry into a stage of high aging.
The transformation will be even more evident towards the middle of the century and the data is clear: the population aged 0 to 14, which represented 25% in 2025, would fall to 18% in 2050, while the population aged 65 and over would go from 9% to 17% during the same period.
The ONE points out that, if these trends continue, by mid-century the country will have more older adults than children for the first time.
The country will grow, but at an increasingly slower pace
Population growth will not be uniform throughout the century either. Data from the ONE indicate that the average annual population growth rate was 31.3 per thousand inhabitants between 1950 and 1975.
The estimated mortality rate for the period 2000-2025 is 10.3 per thousand, while new projections place it at 3.9 per thousand between 2025 and 2050. Between 2050 and 2075, it would drop to 0.9 per thousand, and between 2075 and 2100 it would become negative, with an average rate of -2.6 per thousand. This implies that towards the end of the century, deaths will exceed births.
The Dominican population, therefore, will not follow a trajectory of permanent growth and the projection points to a period of demographic expansion during the next decades, followed by a stage of stabilization and subsequent reduction.
There is still a window of opportunity
Despite the projected aging population, the country is currently experiencing a period that the National Statistics Office (ONE) identifies as a demographic window of opportunity. In 2026, there will be 51.7 dependents for every 100 people of working age, the lowest level in the period analyzed. In 1950, the ratio was 93.4 dependents for every 100 people of working age.
The ONE projects that this relationship will remain relatively stable for the next few decades, before beginning to increase again as a result of population aging.
According to the results presented by the institution, this demographic window of opportunity would extend approximately until 2065.
The challenge will be to transform that period into better conditions for economic and social development before the dependency ratio increases again.
The new projections are not merely an update of the number of inhabitants, as the ONE emphasizes that this data is an input for economic and social planning, the allocation of resources and the design of public policies adapted to the different demographic stages.
Population aging presents several challenges, including anticipating new needs in health, care, social protection, employment, and infrastructure. It also alters the characteristics of the economically active population and the relationship between workers and their dependents.
The institution plans to continue during 2026 and 2027 with the preparation of estimates and projections of subnational population, economically active population and households, tools that will allow to know more precisely how these changes will be distributed territorially.
This upcoming data will be especially relevant to understanding how the demand for services and the needs of the country's various communities will evolve.
A transformation that has only just begun
The ONE results paint a picture of a Dominican Republic that is different from that of recent decades and it is predicted that it will be a country with more inhabitants for much of the century, but with a progressively older population, fewer births and a much higher life expectancy.
The transformation is already underway, and the challenge for the coming decades will be to adapt policies, the economy, and services to a population structure that will be very different from the one the country experienced for much of the 20th century.
And although projections indicate that the Dominican Republic will continue to grow until around the 2070s, the underlying message of the new ONE figures is clear: the country is not only changing in size; those who inhabit it are changing.
Source: National Statistics Office (ONE), National Population Estimates and Projections 1950-2100, prepared with technical support from the Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE) of ECLAC. ONE notes that the estimates incorporate information from the 2022 National Population and Housing Census, vital statistics, specialized surveys, and administrative records.
