EFE
Washington
The global economy will slow more than expected in 2023, a year in which much of the world will either enter or fall into recession , according to the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ), which has lowered its growth forecast for next year by two tenths of a percent to 2.7%.
In its global economic outlook report published this Tuesday, the IMF maintains its global growth forecast for 2022 at 3.2%, and warns that the risks that have already slowed global economic development will persist and could worsen it.
According to the Fund, at least a third of the world's economies will enter a technical recession next year , meaning they will have at least two consecutive quarters of contraction in their gross domestic product (GDP).
And it estimates that there is a 25% chance that the situation will worsen and global growth next year will not even reach 2%, a situation that, with the exception of the first year of the pandemic, has not occurred since 2001.
All of this is happening at a time marked by extremely high inflation , which could lead to even bigger problems if not brought under control in time. That is why the Fund is encouraging central banks to continue tightening their monetary policy, even if this leads to an inevitable economic slowdown.
The worst is yet to come
"In short, the worst is yet to come, and for many people 2023 will feel like a recession," says IMFPierre Olivier Gourinchas in the introduction to this report marked by its less-than-flattering forecasts.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine, which continues to "powerfully destabilize" the global economy and has led Europe into a "severe energy crisis," as well as the spiral of inflation worldwide and the slowdown of the Chinese economy, are, according to the Fund, the factors that are shaping global economic developments and will continue to do so in the near future.
In the case of advanced economies, the Fund worsens its forecasts for this year for the United States (1.6% growth compared to the 2.3% forecast in July), but maintains those for 2023 (1%), and does the opposite in the case of the main economies of the euro, which will be especially affected next year.
The eurozone will close this year better than expected - with growth of 3.1%, half a point higher than the previous forecast - thanks to several factors, including the maintenance of recovery funds, a less restrictive monetary policy and the boost from two large economies, Spain and Italy, with their good data in the tourism sector.
But the IMF emphasizes the "significant" differences between countries and their expected economic trajectories, predicting a much greater slowdown for those most dependent on Russian gas. This is why the eurozone is projected to grow by only 0.5% in 2023, seven-tenths of a percentage point less than the Fund's previous forecast.
Spain is growing faster than the rest, but it is also feeling the effects
Spain will continue to be the fastest growing of the four main economies in the euro area, and the Fund has improved its 2022 forecast by three tenths to 4.3%, although it has lowered its 2023 forecast by eight tenths to 1.2%.
Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone, will grow by 1.5% this year, while next year will be much worse, as the Fund lowers its previous forecast by 1.1 points and now calculates a contraction of its GDP of 0.3% for the whole of 2023.
For Italy, the Fund forecasts a good figure for 2022, with growth of 3.2%, but, like Germany, it predicts that its economy will have a recession in 2023 of 0.2%.
As for Latin America, the region is holding up well this year and growing more than expected, at 3.5% (half a point more than previously predicted), although in 2023 the region will be dragged down by the poor data of its trading partners and will only grow by 1.7%, three tenths less than previously calculated.
If China slows down, the world will too
The Asian giant will grow by 3.2% this year and 4.4% next year, according to the IMF, one and two tenths less, respectively, than the previous report estimated.
Its zero COVID policy and continuous lockdowns have taken their toll on the entire economy, and key sectors such as el inmobiliario have "weakened rapidly".
China's slowdown is one of the factors most affecting the global economic course, especially due to the serious problems it is causing in supply chains. This, the fund emphasizes, will continue to "weigh heavily on global trade and activity."
