EFE, Santiago, Chile
The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) reported this Thursday that the Dominican Republic's economy will grow by 4.6% in 2023, a slight decrease from the 4.7% it had projected last October.
Furthermore, he indicated that the region's economic slowdown will deepen in 2023 and that the growth rate will be 1.3%, 0.1% less than estimated last October.
The United Nations agency, based in Santiago, Chile, estimates that the regional GDP will close this year with an expansion of 3.7%, higher than the 3.6% forecast three months ago and far from the 6.7% recorded in 2021.
According to ECLAC, the slowdown began in the second half of 2022 and reflects both "the exhaustion of the rebound effect in the 2021 recovery" and "the effects of restrictive monetary policies, greater limitations on fiscal spending, lower levels of consumption and investment, and the deterioration of the external context.".
"The monetary policy responses adopted globally, in a context of rising global inflation, have led to increases in financial volatility and risk aversion levels, and have therefore induced lower capital flows to emerging economies," the institution said.
In the Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2022 presented this Thursday, ECLAC points out, however, that "the expected reduction in global inflation for 2023 will tend to moderate the increases in monetary policy rates of the main central banks.".
Avoiding another "lost decade"
The report also highlights that the recovery process of labor markets "has not allowed the elimination of the traditional gaps between men and women" and that during 2022 "both an increase in informality and a fall in real wages have been observed.".
Furthermore, debt levels remain high, "so it is to be expected that fiscal space will continue to influence the trajectory of public spending.".
"The risk of rising interest rates, currency depreciations and increased sovereign risk would make it difficult for governments to finance their operations in 2023," the agency added.
To avoid another lost decade like the one observed during the period 2014-2023, ECLAC calls for "innovative public policies in the productive, financial, commercial, social and care economy sectors.".
Venezuela in the lead and Chile in the back
Venezuela (12%), Panama (8.4%) and Colombia (8%) will lead economic growth this year, followed by Uruguay (5.4%), the Dominican Republic (5.1%) and Argentina (4.9%), according to the report.
In the middle of the table are the Caribbean islands (4.5%), Costa Rica (4.4%), Honduras (4.2%), Guatemala (4%), Nicaragua (3.8%), Bolivia (3.5%), Mexico (2.9%) and Brazil (2.9%).
At the bottom of the list are Ecuador (2.7%), Peru (2.7%), El Salvador (2.6%), Chile (2.3%), Cuba (2%), Paraguay (-0.3%) and Haiti (-2%), according to the balance.
By 2023, Venezuela continues to lead the projections (5%), followed by the Dominican Republic (4.6%), Panama (4.2%), Paraguay (4%), the Caribbean islands (3.3%), Guatemala (3.2%), Uruguay (2.9%), Bolivia (2.9%), Honduras (2.7%), Costa Rica (2.6%), Peru (2.2%), Nicaragua (2.1%) and Ecuador (2%).
According to ECLAC, the countries that will grow the least next year are El Salvador (1.6%), Colombia (1.5%), Cuba (1.5%), Mexico (1.1%), Argentina (1%), Brazil (0.9%), Haiti (-0.7%) and Chile (-1.1%).
