SANTO DOMINGO – The Dominican Republic is among the countries with the best economic growth prospects in the world, according to projections from the Harvard Growth Lab, a research center affiliated with Harvard University. According to the Growth Projections of the Atlas of Economic Complexity, the country is projected to register an average annual growth of 3.82% in its real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) between 2024 and 2034, a performance that places it among the most dynamic economies in the medium term.
The report also highlights a particularly relevant element: the Dominican Republic is the only country in Latin America and the Caribbean that appears within the top 20 places in the global ranking of GDP per capita growth for that period, which demonstrates an outstanding performance adjusted for population.
“Looking ahead, the country is in a position to take advantage of opportunities to diversify its production, using existing knowledge and productive capacities,” highlights the laboratory report, whose data can be publicly consulted on the Atlas platform.
Economic complexity and productive diversification
Growth Lab's projections are based on the Economic Complexity Index (ECI), an indicator that assesses countries' productive capacity based on the diversity and sophistication of their exports. The study indicates that economies with more complex productive structures tend to sustain more stable and higher growth rates in the long term.
In the case of the Dominican Republic, Harvard acknowledges progress in economic diversification, driven by sectors such as tourism, free trade zone manufacturing, services, and industrial exports. However, it also warns of structural challenges related to productivity, institutional quality, and inequality.
Indicators that explain the country's positioning
The analysis classifies the Dominican Republic as an upper-middle-income country and ranks it as the 59th richest economy in terms of GDP per capita among 145 nations studied. With a population of approximately 10.8 million, its GDP per capita reaches US$11,541 (US$29,192 in purchasing power parity for 2024).
GDP per capita growth has averaged 2.9% over the past five years, exceeding the regional average, according to the report.
Other macroeconomic indicators also provide context. The International Monetary Fund projects the country's nominal GDP at US$129.75 billion for 2025, with a growth rate of 3.0%, while GDP per capita reached US$11,919, an increase of 3.3% compared to the previous year.
Latin America: moderate growth versus Dominican dynamism
The outlook for the region presents a contrast. World Bank data compiled by TheGlobalEconomy indicates that Latin America's average growth was 2.22% in 2024, while the Dominican Republic led the list with 4.95%, followed by Costa Rica (4.32%) and Paraguay (4.25%).
In terms of purchasing power parity income, the country has also gained ground. A ranking published by Global Finance places it as the seventh richest country in Latin America and the Caribbean, surpassing economies such as Argentina, Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia.
International estimates reinforce this outlook. According to the International Monetary Fund, the Dominican economy could expand by 4.8% in 2026, placing it above much of Latin America, where consumption has been the main driver of economic activity.
A regional context of less expansion
The Dominican Republic's positioning takes on greater significance in an environment where the region is experiencing slower growth. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) projected that regional economies would grow by 2.4% in 2025, maintaining what it described as a limited expansion trajectory, despite the recovery in trade.
This contrast helps explain why Harvard Growth Lab projections place the Dominican Republic in a distinct position on the international economic map, supported by a more diversified productive base and indicators that have exceeded regional averages in recent years.
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