SANTIAGO - Economist Raúl Ovalle projects that the Dominican Republic will see interest rates fall by 150-200 basis points below current levels in the second half of 2023, taking into account the measures adopted by the Central Bank.
Analyzing the current economic outlook, the managing partner of ANALYTICA explained that the construction sector will be crucial to this growth and that the boost given by the monetary authorities could place the country among the three fastest-growing economies in the region this year.
While delivering the lecture “Future of Construction: Challenges and Opportunities in the 2023 Economic Environment”, sponsored by the Association of Builders and Housing Developers of Cibao (APROCOVICI), Ovalle said that he anticipates growth of close to 4% with inflation within the Central Bank's target range.
The economist understands that, despite the increases recorded in the Housing Cost Index (ICDV), which has accumulated an increase of 39% from December 2019 to April 2023, comparable increases in the prices of construction inputs are not anticipated in the short or medium term.
Ovalle acknowledged the slowdown in the first four months of 2023, but anticipated a recovery for the second half of the year, driven by the monetary stimulus announced by the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD) and the decrease in the impact of the risks that materialized last year.
During his presentation, the financial expert identified the geopolitical risks and international trends that could impact the Dominican economy, warning about the potential increase in the prices of fundamental commodities such as oil, gas and coal resulting from the growing instability in Europe.
However, Ovalle drew attention to the main challenges, especially the sociopolitical conflict in Haiti and its potential repercussions in terms of reputational risk, border security, and health for the country. He emphasized the strategic importance of the construction sector in managing these challenges.
Construction: a key driver for the country's development
Alejandro Fondeur, president of APROCOVICI, stated that the construction sector is a key driver of the country's development and a stimulus for investment that adds value to the Dominican economy.
He also highlighted the importance of this sector for the sustainable development of the Northern region and the country, emphasizing some of the benefits that come from construction, such as job creation and increased consumption, among others.
The meeting brought together urban planners, builders, engineers, architects, real estate agents, business owners and representatives of various financial entities in Santiago.
