Tightening entry controls to the United States could lead to a significant drop in international tourism spending. This is the warning from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), which estimates a potential impact of US$15.7 billion less in visitor spending, equivalent to approximately €13.2 billion.
The analysis indicates that the measures, especially those related to the review and disclosure of social media activity, could have a deterrent effect, leading almost a third of travelers to reconsider or cancel their plans to enter the country. The report was prepared by the WTTC in collaboration with GSIQ and Oxford Economics, as detailed in the study itself.
Fewer visitors, less employment
The organization, which represents a significant portion of the global private tourism sector, warns that the reduction in spending would not only affect industries linked to travel, accommodation, gastronomy and leisure, but would also have an immediate effect on the labor market.
According to their calculations, lower international demand could put approximately 157,000 jobs, a figure comparable to the number of jobs created, on average, in a single quarter in the United States. The WTTC emphasizes that tourism has a cross-cutting impact on the economy, with repercussions for supply chains, services, and retail.
The report also presents a scenario in which international arrivals would fall by 4.7 million visitors, with a particularly marked decline in markets linked to the Visa Waiver Program through the ESTA system. Under this hypothesis, the flow of travelers from these countries could decrease by 23.7% in 2026 compared to a scenario with no changes in entry requirements.
The debate about the ESTA program and the traveler's perception
At the heart of the discussion are the proposed modifications to the Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA), which would raise the level of information required of tourists by more broadly incorporating data related to social networks.
The WTTC emphasizes that, beyond the specific measure, the signal perceived by travelers is crucial. Increased administrative friction, uncertainty, or the exposure of personal information can translate into distrust and, ultimately, the choice of another destination.
The agency adds that this type of policy usually affects leisure travel first, but also impacts segments such as family visits, multi-destination itineraries and short stays, which are particularly sensitive to ease of entry.
Tourism competitiveness in a global market
The study warns that if a stricter entry policy is adopted, the United States could be perceived as a more restrictive destination than key competitors such as the United Kingdom, Japan, Canada, and several Western European countries. This perception could put it at a disadvantage in a global market where travelers have multiple options.
Gloria Guevara, president and CEO of the WTTC, acknowledged that border security is essential and that governments have a responsibility to manage the risks. However, she maintained that public policy design must balance this objective with the economic and social impact, especially when tourism an engine of employment and activity in multiple states and cities.
The Council concludes that, in an increasingly competitive global environment, ease of entry and regulatory predictability have become decisive factors when choosing a destination. If the goal is to strengthen controls without affecting competitiveness, the report adds, it will be crucial to adopt measures that are proportionate, transparent, and clearly communicated.
Source: Report “WTTC warning over tourism spending in the US”, published on February 11, 2026 by the World Travel & Tourism Council in collaboration with GSIQ and Oxford Economics.
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