According to the analysis by the international organization, the hardest hit will be low-income populations and developing economies
SANTO DOMINGO – The impact of the war in the Middle East will not be limited to energy markets. According to the Commodity Markets Outlook 's World Bank, the conflict is triggering a chain of effects that are driving up the cost of living globally, from fuel to food.
According to the agency, energy prices will rise by 24% this year, driving a general increase in commodity prices of up to 16%. This trend, the analysis suggests, would mark the largest increase in energy costs in recent years.
An effect that goes beyond oil
According to the report, the price increases are not isolated events. The rise in energy costs directly impacts production, transportation, and distribution costs, which ultimately affects the price of food and other essential goods.
In that context, fertilizers are projected to see a 31% increase, while key agricultural products could become less accessible, affecting both producers and consumers.
Those most affected: vulnerable households and economies
According to the analysis by the international organization, the hardest hit will be lower-income populations and developing economies, where a larger proportion of spending goes towards food and fuel.
The report warns that if the conflict continues, millions of people could face higher levels of food insecurity, in a scenario where access to basic goods is becoming increasingly limited.
Rising inflation and declining growth
According to the document, this scenario will put pressure on global inflation, especially in developing economies, where it could reach an average of 5.1%, exceeding previous forecasts.
At the same time, economic growth will be affected. According to projections, these economies will grow less than expected, impacted by rising costs and restrictions in key sectors.
A scenario that could worsen
The World Bank warns that risks remain high. If energy supply disruptions intensify, oil prices could climb even higher, triggering further price increases in other sectors.
According to the report, this would not only exacerbate inflation, but also limit the ability of governments to respond, many of which already face high levels of debt.
Targeted support
Given this situation, the organization suggests that governments avoid widespread measures that could distort the economy and, instead, prioritize aid targeted at the most vulnerable sectors.
According to the report, the challenge will not only be to contain the immediate impact, but to manage a crisis that combines energy, food and economic stability in the same scenario.
Recommended readings:
