AFP
Airlines expect to carry nearly 5 billion people worldwide this year, surpassing the record set in 2019 before the Covid-19 pandemic, their main professional organization announced on Monday.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA), meeting in general assembly in Dubai, also forecasts that companies will generate a global net profit of $30.5 billion in 2024 and an unprecedented turnover of $996 billion.
These results represent "a great success given the severe recent losses due to the pandemic," remarked IATA Director General Willie Walsh to delegates of his organization, which brings together 320 airlines representing 83% of global traffic.
The 4.96 billion passengers projected for this year would surpass the record of 4.54 billion in 2019.
The health crisis caused huge losses in the air transport sector, estimated by IATA at $183 billion between 2020 and 2022.
"The post-Covid recovery has been remarkable," Vik Krishnan, an aviation industry specialist at the consulting firm McKinsey, told AFP.
However, there are "contrasts between different regions," he explains: "domestic lines in the United States work very well, as in China," which is not the case in France and Germany.
IATA estimates that airlines made a profit of $27.4 billion in 2023.
Rising costs
Willie Walsh announced a relatively low return for his sector, of 3% for 2024.
"With only $6.14 per passenger, our profits aren't that high; they barely cover the cost of a coffee in certain parts of the world," Walsh added.
Airline costs are set to hit a record high this year, reaching $936 billion, according to IATA.
One of the main causes is the fuel bill, estimated at $291 billion, equivalent to 31% of operating costs, based on a barrel of kerosene at $113.8.
"It is very important that we maintain long-term profitability. This will allow companies to fully invest in the products our customers want and in the means to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050," the CEO added.
Air transport currently emits less than 3% of global CO2, but it is singled out as a problem given that only a small minority of the world's population uses this mode of transport.
To achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, IATA is committed to using sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) at 65%, optimizing air and ground operations, and implementing carbon offset initiatives.
However, despite the expected tripling of SAF production this year compared to 2023, these will only represent 0.53% of global fuel consumption in the commercial air transport sector, IATA indicates.
