The conflict zone is not only a destination, but a critical hub that handles 14% of international air traffic, and the current war poses up to 38 million fewer travelers in 2026 and around 56 billion dollars less in tourist spending.
SANTO DOMINGO – The impact of the war in Iran on global tourism has materialized with unusual speed, even by geopolitical standards. The consensus among Oxford Economics, the World Travel & Tourism Council, and Chatham House is clear: global tourism is facing an immediate shock; the impact is severe in the Middle East, but it is generating a geographical redistribution of demand.
In this reorganization, destinations like the Dominican Republic are positioned as indirect beneficiaries, based on stability, accessibility, and perception of safety.
Oxford Economics projections show that international arrivals to the Middle East could fall between 11% and 27% year-on-year in 2026, implying a loss of up to 38 million visitors and up to $56 billion in tourism spending.
The magnitude of the shock is explained by the structural nature of the global tourism system: the Gulf is not only a destination, but a critical hub. According to the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), the region accounts for approximately 14% of international air traffic, so its disruption generates cascading effects worldwide.
That impact is already tangible, as the WTTC estimates immediate losses of at least $600 million per day in tourism spending, associated with mass cancellations, a drop in traveler confidence and disruptions in hubs such as Dubai or Doha.
Epicenter in the Gulf, contagion to the Mediterranean
The blow is not uniform, as the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, particularly the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, are experiencing the greatest losses due to their dependence on perceived security and air connectivity.
Additional data show a collapse in hotel bookings in Dubai, cancellation or postponement of international events, and disruptions to air corridors between Europe, Asia, and Africa.
The effect extends beyond the Gulf, as the eastern Mediterranean, including Turkey and Greece, also registers declines due to the indirect risk effect, with tourists redirecting their trips towards destinations perceived as safer.
Winners outside the conflict zone
Tourism responds almost instantaneously to geopolitical shocks. According to Chatham House, armed conflicts tend to disrupt economic activity, reduce visitor flows, and erode global consumer confidence.
The ensuing aviation crisis amplifies this effect: airspace closures in multiple countries have forced the cancellation of thousands of flights and the rerouting of flights, raising costs and reducing supply.
Historically, these shocks do not eliminate global tourism demand but rather redistribute it. The pattern observed in this Middle East crisis since the beginning of 2026 is consistent with previous episodes, in which tourists cancel trips to high-risk destinations and migrate to markets perceived as stable.
It is in this context that many look to the Caribbean, particularly the Dominican Republic, as a potential beneficiary.
Dominican Republic as a “safe” destination
Although it is not the direct focus of the reports, data triangulation allows us to infer that the country is not exposed to direct geopolitical risks, maintains stable air connectivity with the United States and Europe, and competes in the sun and beach segment with partially affected markets.
In this context, the disruption in the Middle East and the Mediterranean may generate an increase in demand for alternative destinations, higher hotel occupancy in tourist hotspots like Punta Cana, and a diversion of European and North American flows towards this and other destinations in the country.
However, the industry views this potential positive impact with caution, as if the conflict escalates and affects global growth, via energy and inflation, total travel demand could contract worldwide.
In that scenario, the Dominican Republic would be competing for a smaller base of travelers, although it would have a relative advantage over regions directly affected by the conflict.
Note: Sources cited in this story include Oxford Economics, a global economic analysis firm renowned for its macroeconomic projection models; the World Tourism Council, an organization that brings together the main players in the global tourism sector and produces data on the economic impact of tourism; and Chatham House, a leading think tank in geopolitics and international economics, whose assessments are widely used by governments and institutional investors.
Recommended readings:
- The war in Iran is reshaping global real estate: rates, capital, and opportunities in peripheral markets
- Oil surpasses $100 and puts pressure on importing economies
- Escalation in the Middle East shakes global aviation: more than 1,500 flights canceled in a single day
