SANTO DOMINGO— The oil market has once again entered a state of alert. After several weeks of calm, the intensification of military operations between the United States and Iran has reignited fears of disruptions to the global crude oil supply, once again placing the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy routes, at the center of concerns for investors, shipping companies, and governments.
According to information published in the newspaper El Nacional, the escalation of the conflict has caused strong movements in international oil prices and keeps markets on alert for any new disruption to maritime traffic through the Persian Gulf.
On Monday, the market showed mixed signals. After three consecutive days of strong gains, the price of Brent crude retreated slightly to $90 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled around $79.40, after both benchmarks reached near one-month highs earlier in the week, according to Yahoo Finance, citing data from Investing.com.
However, this moderation does not reflect a decrease in risk. Traders continue to assess the impact that a prolonged conflict would have on the global energy supply.
Hormuz becomes the flashpoint again
The main focus of concern remains the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime corridor through which about a fifth of the world's traded oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes, according to TradingView.
Uncertainty increased following new US attacks on Iranian military facilities and Tehran's response, which warned of possible further disruptions to the region's energy exports.
According to PrecioPetroleo.Net, ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz decreased again on Monday. Data from the maritime intelligence firm Kpler shows that only nine tankers crossed the strait on Wednesday, compared to thirteen the previous day, reflecting growing nervousness among shipping companies.
The publication also includes warnings from market operators who believe that a prolonged conflict could lead to supply problems if navigation along this strategic route continues to be restricted.
The market is once again incorporating a "risk premium"
The conflict has forced investors to reincorporate a geopolitical risk premium into the price of crude oil.
According to EuroNews, in addition to the military attacks, the market is assessing the possibility of delays in regional production, damage to energy infrastructure and greater difficulties for maritime transport, factors that are putting upward pressure on prices.
Analysts at ING bank, quoted by Yahoo Finance, warned that concerns are growing because potential supply disruptions coincide with a reduction in global inventories recorded during the second quarter of the year.
In addition, the releases of strategic oil reserves used in recent months to stabilize the market will soon end, reducing the margin for response to a potential supply shock.
Forecasts continue to point to volatility
According to analysts at Jefferies, quoted by Yahoo Finance, the current phase of tension could last for several weeks, even if it does not lead to a larger-scale open war.
Their assessment is that restrictions on transit through the Strait of Hormuz could remain in place, sustaining pressure on international oil prices.
Similarly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned, as reported by Infobae, that even if shipping were to fully normalize, it would take two to three months for the global flow of oil to recover to normal levels. The organization also cautioned about the risk of permanent production losses at some fields if the disruptions continue.
An impact that transcends the energy sector
Although the behavior of oil is usually associated solely with the fuel market, its evolution has effects on multiple economic activities.
The rising price of crude oil increases the costs of maritime, land and air transport; it puts pressure on the prices of raw materials derived from petroleum and can be passed on to the cost of industrial goods, food and construction materials.
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