Due to its geographical location, the country is exposed to meteorological phenomena that reveal high levels of structural vulnerability
SANTO DOMINGO. – The intense rains associated with the upper-level trough that has affected the country in recent days are not an isolated event, but rather part of a historical pattern of high recurrence of hydrometeorological events in the Dominican Republic, according to recent data from the National Statistics Office (ONE).
According to the official infographic, 75 hydrometeorological events were recorded in the country between 1995 and 2024, with an annual average of two events over the last decade. This stable frequency does not imply a reduction in risk, but rather a constant exposure of the territory to intense rainfall, storms, and cyclones.
Critical peaks
The analysis by type of phenomenon shows that 81.33% of the events are associated with tropical systems, with tropical depressions and storms being the most recurrent, with 44 cases registered in the period and in a smaller proportion, disturbance phenomena represent 16%, while extratropical events barely reach 2.67%.
Although the cyclone season, from June to November, accounts for most of these events, the data reveals a marked concentration between August and September, months in which 65.28% of the recorded phenomena occur.
However, episodes such as the trough that still affects the national territory highlight that impacts can occur outside of the most critical peaks, extending the period of vulnerability.
Recurrence and cumulative risk
On a territorial level, the distribution of the trajectories shows that provinces such as La Altagracia, Azua, San Juan, Elías Piña and La Vega have historically been the most affected, a geographical concentration that suggests the persistence of risk corridors where climatic and geographical conditions favor the incidence of these phenomena.
This recurrence not only indicates geographical exposure, but also the persistence of structural conditions that favor the repeated impact of these events.
Beyond identifying affected areas, the infographic shows how frequently certain provinces have been impacted over time, accumulating multiple trajectories of events between 1995 and 2024.
This pattern of repetition allows us to interpret the risk not as an isolated event, but as a cumulative phenomenon that increases social, economic, and environmental vulnerability in these territories.
Are we ready?
In terms of preparedness, the ONE highlights that in 2024, 64.7% of households took measures to protect their homes in the face of alerts, mainly by securing doors, roofs and windows.
Other actions include protecting appliances (20.8%) and securing vulnerable objects (17.7%). However, more structural or preventative evacuation measures, such as the use of shelters (5.4%) or the placement of sandbags (3%), are less frequently adopted.
This behavior shows that, although there is some culture of prevention, reactive actions and immediate protection predominate, rather than long-term mitigation strategies.
Seasonality concentrated in a few months
Within the hurricane season, the occurrence of events is not evenly distributed. August (33.33%) and September (31.94%) together account for 65.28% of the recorded events, followed by October (15.28%) and July (13.89%).
Conversely, June (0%) and November (5.56%) have a much lower incidence, and these data reflect a highly concentrated climate calendar, where the risk intensifies in a reduced period of the year.
Types of phenomena and their impact
The classification of events distinguishes between disturbances, tropical cyclones, and extratropical cyclones, each with distinct characteristics in their formation and behavior. While tropical cyclones derive their energy from warm ocean waters, disturbances represent alterations in the atmospheric system that can affect its stability, and extratropical systems depend on thermal contrasts.
This typological diversity explains why events of different natures can generate similar impacts in terms of rainfall, flooding, and damage.
What does this imply at this moment?
In the context of the recent rains, this data allows us to better understand the magnitude of the impact: a country that faces an average of two hydrometeorological events per year, with a high incidence of tropical systems and a marked seasonal concentration, remains in a situation of structural vulnerability.
The current trough, far from being an exceptional phenomenon, thus adds to a historical trend that poses urgent challenges in terms of territorial planning, strengthening of infrastructure and consolidation of a more comprehensive culture of prevention in the face of natural disasters.
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