Data on the economic impact of the conflict in the Middle East on the economies of tourist-generating markets point to a reduction in income and loss of jobs in those countries that fuel local tourism
SANTO DOMINGO. – The “Analysis of the International Context, April 2026 (From April 13 to May 12, 2026)”, published by the Central Bank, registers an economic slowdown and inflationary pressures in the main markets that send tourists to the country, which could translate into a lower capacity for discretionary spending by international visitors.
The United States, the main source market for tourists to the Caribbean and the Dominican Republic, recorded an inflation rate of 3.8% year-on-year in April 2026, compared to 3.3% in March, according to figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
The research, conducted by Eduardo Saviñón and Elizabeth Guzmán of the Subdirectorate of International Economic Affairs of the International Department of the Central Bank, attributes the increase mainly to "higher gasoline prices, followed by persistent pressures in housing and food indices", while core inflation stood at 2.7%.
On the other hand, the International Monetary Fund, in its April 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) update, also reduced its growth projection for the United States by one tenth, placing it at 2.3% for the year.
This slower economic growth, combined with persistent inflation, may translate into less discretionary spending capacity for consumers, including international tourism, the Central Bank document says.
"The IMF reduced its growth forecast for the United States and China by one-tenth of a percentage point to 2.3% and 4.4%, respectively. In the case of the eurozone, the forecast was revised downwards from 1.3% to 1.1%," according to the BCRD document.
In the European market, the euro zone recorded GDP growth of just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2026, and headline inflation climbed to 3.0% in April, for the second consecutive month above the European Central Bank's 2.0% target, driven by fuel prices that rose 10.9% year-on-year.
Unemployment in the euro zone stood at 6.2% in March, with approximately 10.9 million people outside the labor market, according to Eurostat.
In the case of the United Kingdom, the IMF revised its growth projection for 2026 downwards from 1.3% to 0.8%, the steepest reduction among the major advanced economies in the April update.
Overall, the IMF revised its growth outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean upwards, from 2.2% to 2.3%, driven by an expected better performance in Brazil and Mexico.
This data suggests greater dynamism in intraregional tourism, although this segment has less relative weight in Caribbean destinations than North American and European tourism.
| US CPI (April) 3.8% Highest level in the period covered | Euro Zone GDP (Q1 2026) 0.1% Quarter-on-Quarter; one tenth less than the previous period | Latin America and the Caribbean (IMF projection) 2.3% Revised upwards from 2.2% |
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