SANTO DOMINGO – Thinking about tourism in the Dominican Republic is synonymous with talking about growth, investment, and economic dynamism. The country has not only consolidated its leadership in the Caribbean but continues to break records. In 2025 alone, it received 11,676,901 visitors, of which 8,861,169 arrived by air and more than 2.8 million by cruise ship, according to official data presented by the Ministry of Tourism.
The figures confirm the destination's appeal. In the first quarter of 2025, areas such as Punta Cana/Bávaro reached a hotel occupancy rate of 89.9%, La Romana/Bayahíbe 88.2%, and Puerto Plata 82.8%, reflecting strong demand that continues to drive hotel, tourist residential, and vacation rental construction.
However, the very success that attracts investors today is also changing the rules of the game. Global tourism is entering a phase where profitability will no longer depend solely on location or visitor flow, but on more complex variables: climate risk, operating costs, environmental pressure, insurance, and the transformation of air transport.
The question is no longer which projects will attract capital, but which ones might cease to be profitable before the end of the decade.
A strong tourism sector… but more exposed
Dominican tourism began 2016 with a record 1,155,484 visitors in January, demonstrating that international demand remains robust. However, this growth does not eliminate structural risks. In fact, international organizations warn that climate phenomena are beginning to translate into financial risks for the real estate market, affecting valuations, financing, and investment decisions.
Added to this is a factor that is becoming increasingly visible in the Caribbean: sargassum . The massive accumulation of this seaweed can reduce hotel occupancy, damage ecosystems, and directly affect the tourism economy, even forcing governments to coordinate regional strategies to contain the impact.
The message for investors is that tourism will continue to grow, but not all developments will grow with it.
1. Beachfront projects without coastal protection
For decades, proximity to the sea was synonymous with immediate increased property value. However, the OECD recommends avoiding construction in areas of high climate risk and incorporating these factors into planning and investment decisions. The reason is financial: extreme weather events can erode property values, disrupt credit patterns, and generate losses that weaken loan collateral.
In practice, this means that a beachfront hotel may face accelerated depreciation, higher protection costs, and difficulty obtaining financing. What is currently a premium location could become a less liquid asset if the market perceives the physical risk as permanent.
2. Massive resorts that compete solely on price
Large-scale tourism will continue to exist, but the high-volume, low-margin model is increasingly sensitive to regulatory and environmental changes. The OECD emphasizes the need to redirect investment from carbon-intensive or high-risk buildings toward resilient, low-emission assets.
This shift entails greater technological, energy, and operational demands. Projects that fail to adapt could face escalating costs just as the market demands sustainability as the standard. In other words, price will no longer be the sole competitive factor; environmental efficiency and adaptability will become key variables in profitability.
3. Developments highly dependent on cheap flights
Climate change is also impacting aviation. Studies by EUROCONTROL warn that more severe weather events will cause more delays, higher fuel consumption, and increased emissions, driving up the sector's operating costs.
For island destinations, where air travel is the primary mode of access, any structural increase in costs can be passed on to fares and affect demand. Thus, projects that depend exclusively on large volumes of international passengers could become more vulnerable to external shocks that are no longer exceptional, but rather part of the new climate scenario.
4. Complexes with high water consumption
The future of real estate is linked to decarbonization and the adaptation of the built environment to increasing physical risks. This poses a direct challenge for projects that require large volumes of energy or water: the investment needed to make them resilient can increase significantly.
The dilemma is twofold—mitigating emissions and adapting infrastructure—which forces developers to incorporate resilience from the design stage if they want to protect the asset's performance.
5. Projects in destinations with saturated infrastructure
Climate risks don't just affect buildings; they also operate through macroeconomic channels such as growth, productivity, and inflation, which can alter the performance of the entire real estate ecosystem. When urban infrastructure—transportation, basic services, planning—fails to keep pace with growth, the impact is felt by visitors and, by extension, by the destination's competitiveness. This reinforces a key idea for investors: tourism profitability depends as much on the project as on the surrounding area.
6. Assets exposed to natural disasters without solid financial coverage
The insurance market already reflects the magnitude of the problem. Natural disasters generate losses of hundreds of billions each year, and only a portion of that is insured, forcing businesses and homeowners to absorb significant damage. Furthermore, the increase in extreme events is causing insurers to raise premiums, restrict coverage, or withdraw from high-risk areas, widening protection gaps.
A project may maintain good occupancy, but if securing the infrastructure becomes too expensive, the financial equation changes completely.
7. Hotels in areas with recurring sargassum without a mitigation strategy
Sargassum has become an environmental and economic threat to the Caribbean. Its accumulation damages ecosystems, generates irritating gases, and discourages tourism, a sector that represents about 15% of the Dominican Republic's GDP, according to estimates from the World Travel & Tourism Council cited by Reuters.
Scientists even warned that volumes could double previous peaks, complicating planning and reducing investor interest. For hotels whose business model revolves around the beach, the lack of operational solutions could translate into cancellations, damaged reputation, and upward pressure on rates.
The new metric for tourism profitability
Dominican tourism continues to position itself as an economic engine—to the point that the World Travel & Tourism Council projects the sector will contribute nearly US$21 billion to the country's economy, equivalent to about 15% of GDP. But future profitability will no longer be measured solely by occupancy rates or visitor arrivals. The market is beginning to divide between resilient and vulnerable projects.
The former integrate sustainability, risk management, and long-term planning. The latter depend on conditions that are no longer guaranteed. Looking ahead to 2030, the signal for investors is as clear as it is strategic: in tourism, simply building well will no longer be enough. It will be necessary to build prepared.
Recommended readings:
- Top 10: Tourist destinations with the greatest real estate potential in 2026
- Tourism in the Dominican Republic: three months of continuous growth and the effect of Hurricane Melissa
- More than 100 cruise ships will arrive in the Dominican Republic in February: the logistical and economic challenge of maritime tourism
