These sectors are obliged to revise their expectations based on the adjustments made by the IMF in its World Economic Outlook report, in which it lowers the economic expansion forecast from 4.0% to 3.0%.
SANTO DOMINGO. – In mid-October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its growth projection for the country this year to 3.0%, down from the 4.0% estimated last April. Although the organization anticipates a gradual recovery to 4.5% in 2026 and 5.0% in 2027, the 2025 adjustment necessitates a review of expectations in key sectors such as construction, the real estate market, and tourism.
Although the country is identified as one of the most resilient economies in the Caribbean region, it is not exempt from the blows of the winds of the global slowdown, according to the World Economic Outlook report, presented on October 13, 2025, by the credit agency.
Construction: Between Financial Pressure and Reforms
The construction sector, which closed 2024 with a growth of 2.1% according to the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic, faces a slowdown marked by the increased cost of credit, accumulated inflation in materials and the slowness in the issuance of state permits.
The IMF's projected GDP reduction translates into less private investment and caution among developers, in addition to the impact of interest rates, which have kept mortgage loans at restrictive levels, directly affecting demand.
“To sustain potential growth and attract more foreign direct investment, it will be key to reduce administrative hurdles , improve institutional efficiency project approval processes, ” the report warns.
And in the country, authoritative voices have been demanding action for some time. “The permitting process remains a critical issue: it is not enough to have clear laws if the procedures are slow, opaque, or inconsistent,” stated lawyer Reyna Echenique, during her participation in the Safe Metros forum, where she presented figures that place the country above the world average in legal certainty.
In her analysis on strengthening legal security in the Dominican Republic, published on October 19 in El Inmobiliario, the real estate lawyer warns that advances in property rights and institutional transparency must be accompanied by improvements in administrative processes.
Economist Rafael Espinal has also warned: “Construction remains a barometer of the economy . If regulatory processes are not streamlined and incentives are not reviewed, we could see a deeper contraction in 2026.”
Real estate market: trust at stake
The Dominican real estate market, especially in tourist and urban areas, has shown signs of resilience thanks to the interest of Dominicans abroad and foreign investment. However, the macroeconomic environment presents challenges:
– Sales reduction of between 25% and 40% in 2024, according to the Association of Housing Builders and Developers ( ACOPROVI) in its August bulletin.
– Erosion of trust among many buyers due to real estate fraud scandals
– Urgent need to strengthen legal traceability and oversight mechanisms
The IMF's projected inflation for 2025, at 3.7%, could partially alleviate operating costs, but it does not compensate for the credit slowdown or regulatory uncertainty.
Tourism: the engine that never stops
In contrast, tourism is consolidating its position as a major economic buffer in this context. The Ministry of Tourism projects 12 million visitors by the end of this year, surpassing the 11 million of 2024, while the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) estimates a contribution of US$21.1 billion to GDP, equivalent to 15.8% of the national economy.
This dynamism not only boosts employment and consumption, but also revitalizes the real estate market in coastal areas, with projects focused on holiday rentals and second homes.
Keys
– Construction: faces pressure from costs, credit and regulation
– Real estate: requires strengthening trust and legal traceability
– Tourism: maintains its pace and energizes the market in strategic areas
The IMF report should prompt reflection among all stakeholders in the sector, because the downward revision of the economic growth projection for 2025 is not just a number: it is a signal that challenges them:
– Is the real estate market prepared to face an environment of slower growth and restricted credit?
– What adjustments could developers consider in light of the new macroeconomic scenario?
– How can the tourism boom translate into sustainable urban planning?
More than definitive short-term answers, this context demands dialogue, transparency, and a comprehensive strategic vision.
Sources consulted
International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, October 2025
Central Bank of the Dominican Republic, Economic Report, September 2025
Diario Libre, “Economists warn of slowdown in construction”, October 2025
ACOPROVI, Sectoral Bulletin, August 2025
WTTC, Economic Impact Report, 2025
