The dollar closed yesterday at RD$62.69, raising questions: how high will it go in 2026, and can the economy withstand a more expensive dollar? The government, bankers, and business leaders defend stability, but warn that this calm could be shaken if external pressures persist.
SANTO DOMINGO. – The US dollar, the country's reference hard currency, closed on December 25, 2025, at around RD$62.60 per unit, according to official data from the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD), after a year of ups and downs, moving in a range of RD$58.7 to RD$64.4 pesos per dollar, reflecting a depreciation of the local currency by 5.7 points.
This behavior is attributed to external pressures, such as international interest rates and fuel prices, although experts also point to domestic demand for foreign currency for imports and the dynamism of tourism and remittances.
In March, the governor of the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD) stated that “Recent exchange rate fluctuations are due to seasonal demand factors and the current global uncertainty. The Dominican economy remains stable thanks to the credibility of its institutions and macroeconomic discipline, and the Central Bank is prepared to implement measures to prevent excessive exchange rate volatility, thereby protecting the inflation target and overall stability.”.
That same month, Leonel Castellanos Duarte, president of the National Union of Businessmen (UNE), declared that “Economic agents have observed with alarm the erratic behavior of the US dollar against the Dominican peso. It is necessary for the Central Bank to implement corrective measures that curb the depreciation of the peso and restore confidence to the market.”.
In April, the Central Bank adjusted its exchange rate projection upwards for the end of 2025, placing it at RD$64.80 per dollar, emphasizing international factors and the demand for foreign currency.
In June, the Central Bank, in its Monetary Policy Report, stated: “The behavior of the exchange rate reflects external pressures, but the financial system maintains liquidity and stability conditions that allow it to face episodes of volatility without compromising the inflation target.”.
In a statement dated December 13, 2025, the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD) explained that reference rates are calculated as a weighted average of transactions in the spot market, also called the cash market, which is characterized by the fact that operations are settled immediately or in a very short period, generally up to two business days, which guarantees transparency in price formation.
A year of stability
The end of 2025 confirms a year of relative exchange rate stability, with a moderate depreciation of the peso against the dollar within the margins projected by the Central Bank. Official figures and statements by Governor Héctor Valdez Albizu indicate that the financial system maintains sufficient strength and liquidity to withstand external pressures.
Looking ahead to 2026, economic growth projections of around 4-5% are based on sectors such as tourism, foreign investment and free trade zones.
However, business voices such as that of Celso Juan Marranzini, president of CONEP (Listín Diario, June 4, 2025), warn that the economy remains exposed to global factors and emphasized geopolitical tensions, which tend to make imports more expensive and increase the debt burden in dollars.
Determining factors
– International monetary policy: the persistence of high rates in the US strengthened the dollar and put pressure on emerging market currencies.
– Imports of fuels and supplies: the and food bill
– Tourism and remittances : these incomes offset some of the exchange rate pressure, providing liquidity to the market.
– Foreign direct investment : flows towards energy, construction and free trade zones helped to stabilize the supply of dollars.
A joint reading
Statements from the country's leading economic voices suggest a consensus: exchange rate stability has been preserved, but external risks remain. The governor of the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD), Héctor Valdez Albizu, called for prudence in a context of international uncertainty, emphasizing that the financial system is the "backbone" of the economy.
From the private banking sector, Christopher Paniagua (Banco Popular) downplayed concerns about the movements at the beginning of the year, attributing them to seasonal factors, while Steven Puig (Banco BHD León) highlighted macroeconomic discipline and the strength of the financial system as guarantees against episodes of volatility.
For his part, the president of CONEP, Celso Juan Marranzini, insisted that growth must be accompanied by social welfare and trust between sectors, and called for a “national vision” capable of overcoming structural stagnation.
The government and the Central Bank project growth of between 4% and 5% for 2026, driven by tourism, construction , and free trade zones. However, they acknowledge that the Dominican economy remains vulnerable to further interest rate hikes in the United States, volatility in international fuel prices, and geopolitical tensions affecting global trade.
If the dollar continues to strengthen in 2026, the risks would be clear: imported inflation, pressure on business costs, a greater external debt burden, and a possible slowdown in investment and employment.
Although the 2025 closing rate confirms relative stability, the immediate future will depend on the country's ability to maintain institutional confidence, strengthen domestic productivity, and sustain dialogue between government, banks, and businesses.
Exchange rate stability, more than a technical data point, becomes a meeting point between economic actors who recognize both the progress and the challenges ahead.
